13 Comments
Apr 23, 2023Liked by Inquisitive Bird

Excellent post!

I'll add that the opportunity costs you mentioned are potentially major (much more so compared to other contexts where the term is often used), because they stretch across many domains (educational. work-related, leisure activities, etc), and lead to a reduction of welfare and opportunities to a point below a threshold which allows people to live a normal life.

You won't hear much of this in common disucussions of criminal justice policy, and debates about who are the people who benefit or are harmed by policing.

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Apr 23, 2023·edited Apr 23, 2023

Great article. Now who wants to connect the dots and describe the this small percentage of the population that is doing most of the damage to society?

In the US, about 14% of the population commits about 50% of the murders. If we narrow it down by sex and age, it's about 3-4%. That's just the direct cost in lives. There are billions in indirect cost due to property theft and social programs that do not work. As well as paid positions like diversity officers that basically do not contribute to the economy.

Is the US spending 10-20% of their GDP just dealing with this group? I don't think there has been studying trying to quantify the damage that this group does to society.

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Nice post. Do you know, if any, if there's a discernible effect in the data from the rise (and I'm assuming fall) of 3 Strikes laws? For a while, it was all the rage to give violent criminals a life sentence after their 3rd conviction of a violent felony.

Obviously that doesn't stop the problem of the guys that are arrested buy never convicted, but I wonder if it would still show in the data.

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One would think that 3-strikes-laws should be effective in curbing criminal activity, given what you say in the post. Do you know if they are?

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Not necessarily disputing your point, but regarding the first study you mention, aren't most people in prison in state prisons? Maybe the population of federal offenders isn't representative of the entire US population.

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author

In the same paragraph, I look at data for state prisons

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That's what I get for reading in the sauna...

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Sorry, the second study (regarding the US), not the first one re: Sweden

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Some day we will rediscover one of those old truths we've recently forgotten: some people are, unfortunately, not reformable.

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Would removal of one testicle for each violent felony help?

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How about removal of one head?

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May 26·edited May 26

But how do you deal with a recidivism? Do you suppose criminals are like Hydras?

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Great post. I'd recommend Barry Latzer's two books on the history of American crime from the late 19th century to the Ferguson Era if you want to get a more historical view of crime waves.

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