It amazes me that plenty of people in the past lived to even 50 or 60. The absence of antibiotics alone would lead to many deaths. In my 50s, I somehow got an E. coli infection that spread to kidneys. I was going into septic shock and stayed in hospital for 6 days. I presume I would have died without medical help. That's just one possible cause. There was nothing to be done about a burst appendix. Etc.
Also, I appreciate your detailed confirmation of what I have been saying: That a major part of the increase in life expectancy is not due to a reduction in infant/early childhood deaths. I have been saying it is about 50/50 which matches your number for life expectancy after age 5.
I feel like I’ve been waiting for someone to write about these things all my life. I spend a significant percentage of my free time trawling through demographic data, so I wanted to thank you from the bottom of my heart 🙏. This is absolutely excellent. I look forward to diving into the archives.
"the variance or inequality in lifetime has greatly diminished" - I wonder if the data you have allow to calculate/estimate how, for example, the standard deviation of the age at death (or even, probably more difficult, life expectancy) changed over time (let say for whole population and even for those who passed certain threshold, like reached the age 5 or 15).
Good overview, Bird. Some people see the increasing life expectancy and think we will soon live forever when we gain more than a year in life expectancy per year. In fact, the maximum age at death is stable, and hasn't moved up a day since Jeanne Calment died in 1997. https://unaging.substack.com/p/the-limits-of-human-lifespan-042
Yes, making further progress in maximum lifespan will require new methods that we are trying to figure out. As a life extension advocate of several decades standing, I am constantly making the point that "longevity escape velocity" is far from guaranteed and that do not know when a major breakthrough will be achieved. We cannot simply extrapolate from the trend of the last 150 years. In fact, the improvement has slowed down over the last decade or two.
This is excellent. Thank you!
It amazes me that plenty of people in the past lived to even 50 or 60. The absence of antibiotics alone would lead to many deaths. In my 50s, I somehow got an E. coli infection that spread to kidneys. I was going into septic shock and stayed in hospital for 6 days. I presume I would have died without medical help. That's just one possible cause. There was nothing to be done about a burst appendix. Etc.
Also, I appreciate your detailed confirmation of what I have been saying: That a major part of the increase in life expectancy is not due to a reduction in infant/early childhood deaths. I have been saying it is about 50/50 which matches your number for life expectancy after age 5.
I feel like I’ve been waiting for someone to write about these things all my life. I spend a significant percentage of my free time trawling through demographic data, so I wanted to thank you from the bottom of my heart 🙏. This is absolutely excellent. I look forward to diving into the archives.
Thank you for the kind comment!
"the variance or inequality in lifetime has greatly diminished" - I wonder if the data you have allow to calculate/estimate how, for example, the standard deviation of the age at death (or even, probably more difficult, life expectancy) changed over time (let say for whole population and even for those who passed certain threshold, like reached the age 5 or 15).
I tweeted a graph of this.
That was quick! Thanks a lot.
I once commented at a site our system is based on raising a family in your 20s, peaking in your 40s-early 50s, and dying in your 60s.
The history nerd types all said I was lying.
Good overview, Bird. Some people see the increasing life expectancy and think we will soon live forever when we gain more than a year in life expectancy per year. In fact, the maximum age at death is stable, and hasn't moved up a day since Jeanne Calment died in 1997. https://unaging.substack.com/p/the-limits-of-human-lifespan-042
Yes, making further progress in maximum lifespan will require new methods that we are trying to figure out. As a life extension advocate of several decades standing, I am constantly making the point that "longevity escape velocity" is far from guaranteed and that do not know when a major breakthrough will be achieved. We cannot simply extrapolate from the trend of the last 150 years. In fact, the improvement has slowed down over the last decade or two.
Please take a look at my Substack and consider cross-recommending. Keep up the good work.