Sub-replacement fertility in pre-baby boom Europe

Past perspectives on fertility decline

Introduction

It is well known that fertility rates are falling across the globe, and that most of the developed world has long had fertility below the replacement rate. Less known is the fact that much of the Western world had already reached sub-replacement fertility before the Second World War, only to be interrupted by the “baby boom.” This dramatic decline in fertility sparked much public discussion, concern and even led to pro-natalist legislation.

This post is about the contemporary reaction to declining and even sub-replacement fertility prior to World War 2. First I will document the relevant fertility statistics. Afterwards, we will see what contemporary demographers had to say about it and compare with modern explanations.

Trends in European effective fertility